The United States, Europe, and Japan are headed for recession. The IHS Markit forecast for world real GDP growth in 2020 has been revised down to 0.7% in response to the spread of the virus. Growth below 2% is classified as a global recession. The number of active world cases is assumed to top out by the third quarter. Nevertheless, the result will be a U-shaped rather than V-shaped cycle, as a sharp reduction in near-term growth is followed by a slow recovery. Forecast risks are overwhelmingly on the downside and depend crucially on how governments respond. Central banks have already taken emergency actions, but the fiscal response is more uncertain. The recent sharp drop in oil prices will help energy consumers and hurt energy producers. The net effect on global growth is likely to be negative, but small. The US: Recession will start in the second quarter Incoming data point to solid growth at the start of 2020. Fear and financial stress stemming from the spread of the COVID-