"The transition from basic wearables to smart wearables will continue over the next five years as the two approach parity in terms of market share by 2022," said Jitesh Ubrani, senior research analyst for IDC's Mobile Device Trackers. "The rise of smart wearables will not just be in mature markets, but also from emerging markets in Asia/Pacific and elsewhere. Japan will play an equally important role as they consume more than one-third of all smart wearables."
Among the smart wearable operating systems, WatchOS will remain in the lead although its share will decline from 44.4% in 2018 to 35.8% in 2022 as other platforms gain traction. The second largest OS is expected to be Android with 22.4% share in 2022. Android should not be confused with WearOS, as the open-source platform offers vendors an opportunity to customize the wearables' experience while creating differentiation. With Google's service being banned from China, many local brands have adopted this strategy and IDC anticipates the proliferation of these devices to continue in many neighboring countries as well. Behind WatchOS and Android, WearOS will capture 19.8% share in 2022 as additional vendors begin to offer products and as the platform catches up to competitors in terms of features. The remainder of the smart wearables landscape will be comprised of smaller platforms and vendors although IDC anticipates Samsung, Fitbit, and Garmin to dominate with their proprietary platforms.
"Expect smartwatch operating systems to evolve along several vectors in the coming years," said Ramon T. Llamas, research director for IDC's Wearables team. "First, smartwatches will focus on convenience by proactively providing glanceable and actionable information to the user. Second, smartwatches will provide new means of communication between users, and this is where cellular connectivity will play a significant role in its development. Third, smartwatch operating systems will emphasize connection, not only between users but between wearers and other smart devices and systems. Finally, expect further developments focusing on health with the smartwatch playing a critical role in tracking your health goals and detecting potential ailments."
Watches are forecast to reach 72.8 million units in 2018 with smartwatches accounting for roughly two-thirds of the total volume.
Growth for the Wristband category will remain muted with a 0.3% CAGR from 2018 to 2022. However, it's important to note that this category will still account for 24.7% of the total market by 2022 with the total volume reaching 47,0 million. These wearable devices will continue to serve multiple purposes from acting as a stepping stone into the wearables market for first-time buyers to serving as simpler alternatives for smartwatches. In developed markets, the low cost of these products will also enable them to serve as simple patient monitoring tools.
Earwear, accounting for less than 2% of the market in 2018, is on track to capture a 6.8% share in 2022. Growth in this category is largely attributed to the disappearance of the traditional headphone jack on modern computing devices. Additionally, an increasing number of vendors are including biometric tracking into wireless headphones which will further help this category.
|Worldwide Wearables Forecast by Product Category, Including Shipments, Market Share, and 2018-2022 CAGR(shipments in millions)|
|Product||2018 Shipments||2018 Market Share||2022 Shipments||2022 Market Share||2018-2022 CAGR|
|Source: IDC Quarterly Wearable Device Tracker, Dec. 17, 2018.|